Tuesday, June 9, 2020

Financially Free Podcast

Last week I was interviewed on the Financially Free Podcast by Ney Torres which you can listen to here.

We mostly discussed my process and how I look at stocks.  Used some examples HYDI, TCCO, and others.



enjoy

--Dan
disclosure: long all the stocks I talked about except GLGI, TIKK.  Though I have been looking more seriously at GLGI recently

secondary disclosure: I'm sorry I haven't had more stock research posts recently.  It's due to a convergence of issues.  Coronavirus totally screwed up my stock life as I no longer have my work commute and lunch break to look at stocks.  Also I have a ton of cash with my big BMRA, HEMA sales earlier this year so I'm buying more stocks than I'm talking about.  And to keep my sanity during this whole quarantine time I've been working a lot more on my 1967 Pontiac Firebird restoration that's going on year 15 now.  One of these days it'll drive again...













13 comments:

  1. It is probably a good idea to keep a lot of cash.

    Some predictions make me worried. E.g. Jeremy Grantham from GMO wrote in his latest quarterly letter:
    "The current P/E on the U.S. market is in the top 10% of its history. The U.S. economy in contrast is in its worst 10%, perhaps even the worst 1%. In addition, everything is uncertain, perhaps to a unique degree. The market’s P/E level typically reflects current conditions. Markets have historically loved fat margins, low inflation, stability and, by inference, low levels of uncertainty. This is apparently one of the most impressive mismatches in history. That being said, this is a new type of crisis and much will be different. There are no certainties but there are probably still some better and safer themes. Caution and patience are likely to be two of them."

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  2. Some researchers think that there is a January effect and that tiny stocks have a much stronger performance in January compared to other months. The reason could be related to taxes. Have you ever noted this with your investments?

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    1. maybe somewhat. I do buy in Nov/Dec as people sell for tax losses

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  3. I noticed that you buy a lot of stocks that are making losses. I wonder where that approach comes from. There are indications that the complete opposite works well, i.e. companies that make high profits are good investments.
    E.g. investors occasionally overpay stocks with losses see figure 2 here: https://www.schroders.com/en/sysglobalassets/staticfiles/schroders/sites/americas/canada/documents/why-quality-stocks-offer-higher-return.pdf

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    1. It's when a company isn't making money that people forget about it and price it to nothing. That's when I like to buy. So many little companies don't turn a profit consistently, if you're only looking for profitable companies you are closing your eyes to many possibilities

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  4. I dont know if you still hold UUU. The share price rises strongly. I don't really see a reason why. Volume has increased dramatically, these are probably momentum traders. So I expect that the stock price will implode again - but I dont know when is the "optimal" selling time.

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    1. yes I still hold. Been selling on the way up and still have some left. It's up 10x from the 0.30s a few months ago to mid $3s today. I don't know what's driving it

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    2. MICT is also in the mid 3's right now. Up from $0.40 nine months ago. This one is on news of a merger which I think is complete crap, but hey it's moving

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    3. Another share that is rising is SIAF. I would say that this is based on good news. It has gone up 10 times from the lowest price level. There's probably a good chance that this goes further up as the stock is still extremely cheap. The interesting thing is that it's a Chinese company.

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  5. Dan, the market has really punished small community banks lately. Any thoughts on these as a sector to play to go against the grain? Several have share counts under 1MM and market caps under 15MM. I have been buying a few names and trying to pick from different regions of the country to diversify a little. Thanks for all you have done. Sure hope you take some pics when project car is done.

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    1. I don't know much about banks. Sorry

      For sure I'm taking pics of the Firebird. I got the engine running and drove it yesterday for the first time in 12 years!

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  6. I sold UUU for about USD 2.4. It trades now for around 2. Overall, I am not sure if you should sell (an undervalued stock) at all. Some of these shares could rise several hundred percent and then you would miss that.
    Probably buy and hold for a longer period would be better.

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    1. yes that's exactly right. That's why I hold and wait even if a stock has risen a lot. it's hard. you just never know. Years ago I bought TCCO at 2.50 and sold at 5.50 only to see it rise into the teens not long after.

      I sold UUU as low as $1.40 in the spike a couple months ago and as high as $3.90 during the recent rise. I'm out of UUU now. Their numbers look better now that they got rid of the JV. so who knows

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