Wednesday, April 17, 2019

NoName Annual Performance 2018-2019

What a great year!  I'm up 74.3%, giving me a CAGR of 46.4% since I started investing 6 years ago.  What an amazing run it has been.

You can read more on my performance in past annual posts here.

Friday, January 18, 2019

ETCC and the Power of Change

A primary stock attribute I seek is change.  In uncertainty lies opportunity and the chance to catch lightning in a bottle.  Greenblatt hit the nail on the head with his best book, "You can be a Stock Market Genius."  A stagnant company leads to a stagnant stock so you should be searching for change.  Look for the opportunity.  Follow the money.

Big change is risky for a highly priced stock but at necessity at the lows.  A small company dependent on a single product will are forced to rethink everything if their customers find something new.  When a major customer moves on a company will scramble to survive.  Companies will try new products, acquire new businesses, sell to a competitor.

Big change leads to big stock movement and that's what I'm looking for.  Imagine a stock at a 35 year low cut in half over in the past year.  Big change becomes almost binary, either the stock will go to nothing or it's a major win.  Hard to imagine much in between and the next step is is examining the change.

Environmental Techtonics Corp. (ETCC) is undergoing change in majority shareholder ownership.  In Sept 2017 they announced a review of strategic alternatives and the stock shot up from $0.60 to $2.  In Aug 2018 the 54.1% majority owner Gerry Lenfest died and in Oct 2018 his long time Lenfest Group CFO, Joy Tartar, took a seat on the ETCC board.  The stock has drifted back to $0.60...sound interesting?