Monday, September 7, 2020

CEMI: Potential, Hope, and Hype

I like to buy the forgotten, lonely, and broken then sell the exuberant and frothy.  As a once treasured stock tarnishes the masses move on to the next shiny toy, leaving destruction in their wake.  That's when I get excited.  I try to find what has been tossed aside, knowing that if the sun hits just right the sparkle may bring them back.

Chembio Diagnostics, Inc (CEMI) is a medical diagnostic test developer.  On Mar 16, 2020 the stock closed at $2.36, it's lowest point in 9 years.  Four days later CEMI announced a $4M order for a COVID-19 test.  Eleven days after that CEMI launched their DPP COVID-19 test, triggering the highest volume day ever.  The stock peaked at $15.89 a month later.    

Alas it was not meant to be as the FDA rejected their test on June 17 and the stock instantly gapped down from $10 to $4.  What a change of heart.  

CEMI is not giving up.  On July 6 they announced a US FDA contract to develop a COVID point-of-care antigen system.  They also announced they are revising the system and will seek EUA approval from the FDA for their system.  The question is what happens if they get that FDA clearance.

Tuesday, June 9, 2020

Financially Free Podcast

Last week I was interviewed on the Financially Free Podcast by Ney Torres which you can listen to here.

We mostly discussed my process and how I look at stocks.  Used some examples HYDI, TCCO, and others.

Tuesday, April 28, 2020

5 Years

5 years ago today I started this blog.  I can't believe it's been so long.  It has been the most amazing ride!

To anyone out there considering writing, please do.  Jump in full force.  I have improved more than I ever thought possible and so much is due to writing this blog.  It has improved my process, my speed, and my understanding.

I appreciate everyone reading this.  Love the comments and emails.  Thank you so much.  This blog lights up my heart

Saturday, April 18, 2020

NoName Annual Performance 2019-2020

Another incredible year!  I'm up 85.3%, giving me a CAGR of 51.4% since I started investing 7 years ago.  

You can read more on my performance in past annual posts here.

Thursday, February 27, 2020

Stansberry Investor Hour Podcast

A couple weeks ago I was interviewed on the Stansberry Investor Hour Podcast.  My episode went live today and you can listen here.  They even put up a bio page with my picture, so fancy!

It was a lot of fun.  We talked about my investment process, dark stocks, low liquidity, etc.  Dove in a little bit on our old friend SIMA.

Saturday, February 15, 2020

Buying the DYNT Chart

Sometimes you need little more than a chart.

Monday, January 6, 2020

STRI Isn't Done Yet

Almost 3 years ago I wrote up STRI with the stock was at $0.18 and a market cap of $3.5M.  It was a net-net with about $15M in cash.  The stock doubled in two years then dropped all the way to $0.07 before recovering to the low teens.  Latest closing price is $0.12.

The story now is much the same.  We have a small company struggling to stay alive and I'm still waiting for the turnaround.  I read every filing with excitement.  "Maybe today is the day" I tell myself.  They closed operations in China.  They are leaving India.  The Malaysian facility was sold.  They started into a new business in Europe while cutting costs to keep the lights on.

I stick around for the potential amongst the carnage.  Three weeks ago they announced the sale of their old Malaysian facility was completed for over twice the market cap.  A $5M per quarter contract was announced which would be a 300% increase!

Wednesday, January 1, 2020

DIY Investing Podcast

Recently I was interviewed by Trey Henninger on the DIY Investing Podcast.  You can listen to it here.  I had a lot of fun on this one and I am getting more comfortable.  We talked about my investing process, HEMA, DEWY, and a crazy story with CLSI.  

Wednesday, October 30, 2019

SIMA off Grey Market and Requiring NDA

Unfortunately SIMA has decided to require an NDA now to receive their annual reports.  It makes me so mad I'm going to just post all their old reports.

Tuesday, October 8, 2019

SEC Wants to Stop Trading in Dark Stocks

A year ago I wrote a post SEC Considers Blocking Dark Stocks about the SEC's idea, “If a company is a dark company and listed in the OTC market and hasn’t put out financials for six months, maybe it shouldn’t be quoted or offered to retail investors,” and unfortunately it seems to be moving forward.

They now have a rule change proposal "Publication or Submission of Quotations Without Specified Information" which they are accepting comments on for a limited time.

All dark stock investors should be concerned.  Please contact them.

Wednesday, September 4, 2019

Catching the DYSL de-Reg Drop

Dynasil (DYSL) de-registered from the SEC a few weeks ago, moving from the NASDAQ to OTC Pink.  To file the de-reg they bought out all shareholders holding less than 8k shares for $1.15, dropping common outstanding by 16%.  The company estimates a $900k annual savings from not filing with the SEC yet market cap has dropped by 35% from the day before they announced their intention.  Seems like an overreaction to me.

Tuesday, August 6, 2019

Paging all HAUP Shareholders...

A year ago I wrote about HAUP breaking state law by refusing to show me, a shareholder, the company's financial statements.  Since then I have joined a group of shareholders to push for change.  We've sent the company multiple financial statement demand letters.  We've engaged a nano-cap activist who specializes in proxy battles.  We've talked with lawyers and are preparing ourselves for the next step.

This is an update and call to arms.  If you are a HAUP shareholder please send me an email:  I want to know how many shares are held by people I know, how many votes might side with me.  No matter your position size please contact me.  Let's see how big we really are.

Monday, July 8, 2019

ECIA is on the Verge (Again...)

Encision, Inc (ECIA) is in the exciting field of surgical instruments.  This is one of those companies I get super excited about when I just read what they do.  From the most recent 10-k:

Encision...has developed and markets innovative technology that provides unprecedented outcomes and patient safety in minimally-invasive surgery. We believe that our patented Active Electrode Monitoring (AEM®) Surgical Instruments are changing the marketplace for electrosurgical devices and laparoscopic instruments

Saturday, June 22, 2019

My Brokerages: Fidelity, Schwab, ETrade

If you have been a reader for a while you know of all the brokerage drama I've had.  It's all due to the tiny dark stocks I like and the industry moving against them.  I'm sure it doesn't make the brokerages any money so I understand.  I'm happy to report I have brokerages that work great for me.

The latest news is Penntrade has shut down so I transferred those accounts to Schwab.  I love Schwab.  I now use Fidelity, Schwab, and ETrade.  I hope this is my last brokerage related blog post...

Monday, May 20, 2019

POLXF: A Business for Free

Polydex Pharmaceuticals, Ltd (POLXF) is a simple story.  They own their building worth ~$3M.  They have $1.6M in cash and a BV of $5.7M, yet the market cap is ~$3M.  This is one of many stocks I wish I owned more of.

You could shut down operations, sell everything, and turn a profit.  On top of that we have a business that did $4.9M in revenue last year with net income of $230k.

When you see a stock like this it's a dying business, or at least the public thinks it's dying.  Why else would it be priced less than hard tangible BV like that.  CVV is priced similarly.  You have to decide for yourself what may happen in the future.

Sunday, April 28, 2019

QDLC's Potential has Increased

I last talked about QDLC almost two years ago when a group of shareholder activists waged a proxy battle in hope of selling off the company.  When I first wrote about this one 3 1/2 years ago they were dark and hadn't communicated with shareholders in years.  The stock has risen from $0.20 to $1.50 then drifted back to the $0.30s.  Never a dull moment in the QDLC saga and that's not changing any time soon.

Three months ago in January QDLC won an $8M judgement in court.  We have a $3.9M market cap.  You do the math.

Let's have an update on QDLC.  For the backstory you can read my prior posts on QDLC here.

Wednesday, April 17, 2019

NoName Annual Performance 2018-2019

What a great year!  I'm up 74.3%, giving me a CAGR of 46.4% since I started investing 6 years ago.  What an amazing run it has been.

You can read more on my performance in past annual posts here.

Friday, January 18, 2019

ETCC and the Power of Change

A primary stock attribute I seek is change.  In uncertainty lies opportunity and the chance to catch lightning in a bottle.  Greenblatt hit the nail on the head with his best book, "You can be a Stock Market Genius."  A stagnant company leads to a stagnant stock so you should be searching for change.  Look for the opportunity.  Follow the money.

Big change is risky for a highly priced stock but at necessity at the lows.  A small company dependent on a single product will be forced to rethink everything if their customers find something new.  When a major customer moves on a company will scramble to survive.  Companies will try new products, acquire new businesses, sell to a competitor.

Big change leads to big stock movement and that's what I'm looking for.  Imagine a stock at a 35 year low cut in half over the past year.  Big change becomes almost binary, either the stock will go to nothing or it's a major win.  Hard to imagine much in between and the next step is is examining the change.

Environmental Techtonics Corp. (ETCC) is undergoing change in majority shareholder ownership.  In Sept 2017 they announced a review of strategic alternatives and the stock shot up from $0.60 to $2.  In Aug 2018 the 54.1% majority owner Gerry Lenfest died and in Oct 2018 his long time Lenfest Group CFO, Joy Tartar, took a seat on the ETCC board.  The stock has drifted back to $0.60...sound interesting?

Tuesday, November 27, 2018

The Good and Bad Sides of ESMC

Some people look for great companies with unbreakable competitive advantages.  Some will only buy if the history of profitability is secure and guaranteed to continue.  Others reject an accumulated deficit or buy only what is growing.

I steer clear of the masses in a search for the least competition.  I look for the beaten down...the hated, forgotten, and lonely.  In this area of the market only some companies will survive.  My bet is the winners will rise enough to cancel out the dead.  Most stocks I look at have problems.  There is always potential and there is always something wrong.  That's why we have opportunity.  All is not rosy and for sure there is a real risk of loss.

There are always two sides to the coin and ESMC is no different.  If you accept the truth you may see the opportunity.

Friday, November 16, 2018

CVV is too Cheap to Ignore

I first wrote about CVD Equipment Corporation (CVV) three years ago in Oct 2015 with the stock at $12.25.  That's a very high price for me and it has not worked out.  If given another chance I would not have bought at that price but what can you do.

The stock has now slid all the way down to $4.29 and it's a buy here for sure.  Recently I've been buying more and I may continue.  With tax loss season upon us this may very well get cheaper but it's got to be worth a double at least.