Monday, April 17, 2017

NoName Annual Performance 2016-2017

What a year!  My portfolio is up 121.7%, bringing my CAGR to 33.8% since I started investing four years ago.  I'll never match this performance again so let me enjoy this while I can.

My fiscal year begins on Apr 18 as that's the day I bought my first stock.  Below are my performance numbers:




I have two goals in my investing: to make a 12% annual return and beat the market.  I measure "the market" by the S&P 500 ETF SPY.

The performance I quote here is my real portfolio performance and this is my entire investable portfolio.  I manage the retirement funds for myself and my wife which we have spread over a few IRAs and a 401k.  I also manage some after tax money we used to have sitting in a bank.  Luckily I am allowed to buy individual stocks with most of my 401k.  So when I talk about "my portfolio" I am talking about the 98% of my retirement funds which I'm allowed to buy stocks with plus the 85% of my savings I don't have sitting in a bank.  I don't buy any bonds, mutual funds, or ETFs, just the cheap tiny companies I blog about.

You may notice my performance for 2015-2016 is better here than when I reported results last year.  That's because my non-retirement funds have grown to be non-trivial so I decided to include them in my portfolio tracking.  I started investing by managing only about $5k of my retirement funds.  As I gained confidence I took over more and more of the retirement funds and eventually started investing some of the money we had sitting in a bank savings account.  With the after tax bank money I was doing small time odd-lot arbs until a little over a year ago.  The odd-lots did fine, making me 5 or 10% annually but I decided to change my strategy when I was finding stocks so cheap I could not ignore them (SIMA, COMX, HEMA).  As a wise man once told me, the bigger risk is not owning them.  Well the non-retirement money is up about 300% in the past 15 months so I need to include it now... :)

I've done so well over the past year due to a few big time wins.   My investment strategy is all about upside vs downside so that's how it goes.  SIMA is up probably 5x my average buy price.  SKAS (which I haven't blogged about) went up about 3.5x for some unknown reason so I sold out.  I still don't know why that one has gone up so all I can say is good things happen when you buy cheap tiny stocks.  I also made some money selling into random spikes (VII, TCCO).  But the main reason behind my performance is HEMA.  I made HEMA a 30% position at $0.45 fifteen months ago.  I was a buyer many times from summer 2015 to spring 2016 when I cut myself off because it was such a large position.  Now HEMA is $2.50 and I still hold all those shares

Of course I have many stocks that are down this year as well.  That's life.  I have not sold any of them as I think they're cheap.  I guess time will tell if I'm right.  MICT, GIGA, and SOFT are all down about 40%.  VII is way down from my buy price as is STRI.  The list goes on.

As for portfolio allocation I am super overweight HEMA.  It's ridiculous.  I own 33 stocks but HEMA is half my portfolio...that worries me but I think it's more likely to go up than down so here I sit.  Below is my allocation with one blanked out that I'm still buying:


--Dan
disclosure: long everything except SKAS

21 comments:

  1. Awesome! As for HEMA being a huge part of your portfolio now: trust your own research and stick with it if it still seems like a winner fundamentally. "Don't trim the flowers and water the weeds" to loosely quote Peter Lynch. Stick with the other ones in your portfolio too, they just need more time to develop. Ben Graham and Warren Buffett would approve of your choice of companies and subsequent performance.

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  2. Can I take a guess at what the mystery stock is?

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  3. Replies
    1. They make sticky things if ya catch my drift. ;P

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    2. LOL. I've been sitting here trying to make the connection and coming up with nothing. I even re-read the company information section of the latest 10k. HA!

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    3. LOL. OK no worries. Because if we were talking about the same company, it would be obvious. Hahaha.

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    4. OK second guess. Are we perhaps mining for gold???

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    5. Both of you need to share your picks lol

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  4. Well, the only clues I have are that it lies between OPXXW and POLXF and that it files a public 10-K.

    I'll give it my final shot with a couple of guess. Either we're into pharmaceuticals, following Buffett into the airline business or going to Canada.

    I'm outta guesses after that. Lol.

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    1. I'll take "none of the above" for 200, Alex. lol

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    2. Lmao. I look forward seeing what it is when you disclose it. I thought I covered that part of the alphabet fairly well too. Will lose sleep over this. Lol.

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    3. haha. It's really not that exciting of a stock and will only be a small position. Like many others I own it's just small, cheap, and illiquid with potential for the future. Sure would be nice if someone would sell me shares

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    4. btw, "latest 10k" may or may not mean they currently file a 10k.

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    5. I see. What do you figure your risk reward ratio on this one is? I.e. Downside is how much and what's the probability and the same for upside.

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    6. You are looking at this mystery stock much harder than I expected. And you've probably already spent more time on it than me. It's just small and cheap and they had some interesting language in a filing (OK so they do file). Has potential but it's not one of the crazy cheap ones like SIMA. I really haven't thought about it too much. It fits my style so I'll buy some shares then come back to it.

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    7. Lol. I see. SIMA was an absolute dream...

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    8. the mystery stock was PEYE. I have my shares now. Another little company with potential

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