tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-754894216207950592.post953899209199600118..comments2024-03-20T15:55:23.392-07:00Comments on NoNameStocks: ETCC and the Power of ChangeDan Schumhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05728696891530868697noreply@blogger.comBlogger18125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-754894216207950592.post-27117993649500261612023-02-06T19:29:06.422-08:002023-02-06T19:29:06.422-08:00Thanks and yes I do. I've bought a number of ...Thanks and yes I do. I've bought a number of times over the years. Been buying more during tax selling season. Don't think I've ever sold any including missing a spike a few months back but oh well. I'll be watching with interest at the open tomorrowDan Schumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05728696891530868697noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-754894216207950592.post-449343592225310772023-02-06T13:08:33.923-08:002023-02-06T13:08:33.923-08:00Congrats, assuming you still hold thisCongrats, assuming you still hold thisWilliam Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02671386259520340023noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-754894216207950592.post-23155945654070411062022-08-05T15:40:07.458-07:002022-08-05T15:40:07.458-07:00yeah there's been good news recently. I see s...yeah there's been good news recently. I see some folks on twitter talking it up right now. Dan Schumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05728696891530868697noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-754894216207950592.post-67537057227171428352022-08-05T15:04:05.980-07:002022-08-05T15:04:05.980-07:00Huge apreciation for the news published 3 days ago...Huge apreciation for the news published 3 days ago. I don't know if something better will come. David Rodriguezhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08783326120517776862noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-754894216207950592.post-19938664565367979862021-12-13T22:09:18.573-08:002021-12-13T22:09:18.573-08:00yeah it has not worked out so far. Covid has hurt...yeah it has not worked out so far. Covid has hurt. The debt is risky for sure. Still I hold my shares and bought more over the summer as they were coming back to filing. <br /><br />This is one of the many tiny, low, ugly stocks I buy and hold. Always waiting and watching for a sign. Checking for that turnaround. It's low on the chart. Cheap versus the revenue. Not a large position but I hope it will be some day.Dan Schumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05728696891530868697noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-754894216207950592.post-70074832822091198702021-12-06T11:30:51.846-08:002021-12-06T11:30:51.846-08:00ETCC has apparently not worked so far. Equity is p...ETCC has apparently not worked so far. Equity is practically zero and the company looks very weak financially. The short-term debts are crushing. I don't really know whether one should hold on to this stock. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-754894216207950592.post-25936005560180751542019-02-01T12:54:19.261-08:002019-02-01T12:54:19.261-08:00One of the strangest stocks I've seen so far b...One of the strangest stocks I've seen so far by the way is THTI. The equity is 58 million, p/e of 0.3, the market cap is about 1 million. The reason is that this company is from China and therefore you can´t take the financials at face value. But the company is not dark and it is reporting. If the company is fake, it probably would have stopped reporting a long time ago. (I don´t have a position in THTI)Michuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03414971091277943787noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-754894216207950592.post-19944283035485334312019-01-24T19:21:35.734-08:002019-01-24T19:21:35.734-08:00the longer term low the better in my opinion but I...the longer term low the better in my opinion but I'll take what I can get. It's hard for me to buy a rising stock, much easier to buy something at a low pointDan Schumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05728696891530868697noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-754894216207950592.post-89945184286344784482019-01-24T14:39:03.929-08:002019-01-24T14:39:03.929-08:00I understand that you like to buy stocks at a mult...I understand that you like to buy stocks at a multi-year low. There is evidence that buying stocks at a 3-5 year low is a good idea (see here: https://www.ivey.uwo.ca/cmsmedia/3775550/return_reversal_in_uk_shares_oct_2006.pdf).<br />Should a stock be at a 3, 5, 10 years or all time low. Any thoughts about this?Michuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03414971091277943787noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-754894216207950592.post-21570450464415140222019-01-23T10:19:50.454-08:002019-01-23T10:19:50.454-08:00Thanks. I own that one as well. cheap for sureThanks. I own that one as well. cheap for sureDan Schumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05728696891530868697noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-754894216207950592.post-54626391574188964492019-01-23T10:13:30.514-08:002019-01-23T10:13:30.514-08:00Another nano stock idea is APWC. Interesting is al...Another nano stock idea is APWC. Interesting is also the stock investment checklist.<br />https://seekingalpha.com/article/4234935-asia-pacific-wire-and-cable-massively-mispriced-stock-selling-liquidation-value Michuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03414971091277943787noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-754894216207950592.post-54894332477706309872019-01-22T09:24:12.940-08:002019-01-22T09:24:12.940-08:00My basic thinking on ETCC is this: cheap and chang...My basic thinking on ETCC is this: cheap and change is coming. When the change comes, or when there's some press release about it, I bet the stock will move. If the change never comes then we may have a flat, boring stock. It's all about potential. Upside vs downsideDan Schumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05728696891530868697noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-754894216207950592.post-71767794043388192272019-01-21T15:33:52.325-08:002019-01-21T15:33:52.325-08:00Another way is to take average earnings of the las...Another way is to take average earnings of the last years. A business cycle takes about 8 years. Based on a list that I receive monthly from Ruerd Heeg (at seekingalpha), the price to 8 years average earnings ratio is 0.91, so you pay a bit less than 8x average earnings (of the last 8 years). You dont have to deduct any debts because we are taking about net-earnings (after interest and taxes). This is cheap but not very cheap. (The cheapest stock in U.S. based on this multiple are SIAF and CLD). However, good points are that the stock is at a multi year low, the nano size and low outstanding stock amount.<br />It is rather a bet that the investor sentiment will improve. Michuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03414971091277943787noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-754894216207950592.post-74502323030794176642019-01-21T13:32:20.451-08:002019-01-21T13:32:20.451-08:00Oh I see, the debt doesn't include the preferr...Oh I see, the debt doesn't include the preferred.<br /><br />Then you can work backwards to see what multiple is being priced in.<br /><br />9.2*0.58 = $5.34M for equity<br /><br />Debt with prefferred and interest = 20 + 12.1 + 2.4 = $34.5M<br /><br />So firm value implied = $40M approx.<br /><br />$40M on $47M revenue = 0.85x<br />$40 on $3M in earnings = 13.3x<br /><br />Possibly some upside only because of the leverage.<br /><br />Whats the book value per share?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-754894216207950592.post-66344765647611998422019-01-20T16:48:15.976-08:002019-01-20T16:48:15.976-08:00It's hard to say what normalized earnings is. ...It's hard to say what normalized earnings is. It has been on the rise the past few years but was negative only a couple years ago. That's one reason I used revenue<br /><br />$12M is what I think it'd cost to pay off the preferred so you'd have to add that to the debt on the balance sheet. If the company is sold first the debt gets paid off then the preferred is entitled to their pay off and then what's left goes to common. I should have included more of this in my write up the first time. Sometimes I move too quickly past the math because the chart and situation seem right to me. <br /><br />So let's slow down and say a sale price of 1x revenue = $47M. First we pay off the $20M long term debt then buy out the preferred for $12M and pay off the accrued dividends to the preferred of $2.4M. What's left is for the common. So (47-20-12-2.4)/9.2 = $1.37 per common share.<br /><br />Of course you can argue about the sale price whether 1x revenue or 0.85x revenue or some EPS multiple is right. I don't know the answer. Also the debt is growing and now that I look back the long term debt is 22.6M in the latest Q out almost two weeks ago. And the preferred dividends are up to $2.8M. So if we use these latest numbers then it's (47-22.6-12.1-2.8)/9.2 = $1.03 per share.Dan Schumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05728696891530868697noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-754894216207950592.post-77036440850080769912019-01-20T12:42:09.951-08:002019-01-20T12:42:09.951-08:00I don't understand your $12M preferred calcula...I don't understand your $12M preferred calculation v. the $20M of debt you cite? Can you reconcile this please...<br /><br />The easier way to value it, is $3M in Earnings. sold for 10x multiple - it's a microcrap after all!<br />Gives a firm value of $30M <br />Net out the debt of $20M and $2.4M of unpaid dividends<br />Gives $7.6M for equity<br />9.19M common,<br />Gives value per share of $0.826<br />compared to the stock at $0.58 today.<br /><br />What you think of this math Dan?<br /><br />JamesAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-754894216207950592.post-40760577142557441742019-01-19T13:06:55.655-08:002019-01-19T13:06:55.655-08:00Yes it's all about the change. Perhaps a new ...Yes it's all about the change. Perhaps a new owner could improve operationsDan Schumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05728696891530868697noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-754894216207950592.post-80840632382461651342019-01-19T03:00:03.260-08:002019-01-19T03:00:03.260-08:00The reason for the low price could be that this co...The reason for the low price could be that this company was not so profitable in the past in combination with relativly high debts. The company shows an accumlated deficit (usually this means low earnings in the past) and earnings of 2.4 Mio. (2018), -0.92, -10.8, -3.7. Further, operating cash flows and FCF were also not great. The most interesting point is probably the change. <br />Michuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03414971091277943787noreply@blogger.com