tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-754894216207950592.post5559465142898998890..comments2024-03-20T15:55:23.392-07:00Comments on NoNameStocks: Harbor's Dark TakeoverDan Schumhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05728696891530868697noreply@blogger.comBlogger68125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-754894216207950592.post-19363098180607135892023-09-19T18:40:38.246-07:002023-09-19T18:40:38.246-07:00just realized this lawyer mentioned me in their we...just realized this lawyer mentioned me in their website stating they represented the shareholders in the lawsuit to make HRBR file again<br /><br />https://www.dilworthlaw.com/attorneys/catherine-pratsinakis/Dan Schumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05728696891530868697noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-754894216207950592.post-19696052693307184722023-09-19T18:39:46.019-07:002023-09-19T18:39:46.019-07:00like all the rest, someone told me about itlike all the rest, someone told me about itDan Schumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05728696891530868697noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-754894216207950592.post-81269097097819562432023-08-11T07:49:22.125-07:002023-08-11T07:49:22.125-07:00Hi Dan - How did you initially find this HRBR idea...Hi Dan - How did you initially find this HRBR idea? I didn't see this information in the writeup or comments. Fizzled at Golfhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02049251495678773878noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-754894216207950592.post-44672045584247673212022-10-25T14:07:48.548-07:002022-10-25T14:07:48.548-07:00yes I talked with them earlier this year. Very or...yes I talked with them earlier this year. Very organized. I thought that was supposed to be done by nowDan Schumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05728696891530868697noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-754894216207950592.post-21651627543849226082022-10-25T12:33:50.542-07:002022-10-25T12:33:50.542-07:00Wow, nice ! A group of investors is trying the sam...Wow, nice ! A group of investors is trying the same with BLSP now...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-754894216207950592.post-4209334053915678462022-08-26T14:08:08.315-07:002022-08-26T14:08:08.315-07:00kinda fun I found the law firm that "Represen...kinda fun I found the law firm that "Represented investors in Dr. Travis Martin v. Harbor Diversified, Inc., No. 2018-0762-SG (Del. Ch.), and successfully forcing this once-public company that had gone completely dark on its shareholders for over seven years to resume holding annual stockholder meetings and SEC reporting."<br /><br />see the experience section here: https://www.dilworthlaw.com/attorneys/catherine-pratsinakis/Dan Schumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05728696891530868697noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-754894216207950592.post-18745505613822154912021-06-30T08:12:51.234-07:002021-06-30T08:12:51.234-07:00I don't know. I started selling in May, sold ...I don't know. I started selling in May, sold some the other day at 2.96, and finished selling today between 1.85-2. I'm out now<br /><br />It's an airline business which does not excite me. Was a great situation and has played out very fastDan Schumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05728696891530868697noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-754894216207950592.post-91626928100697590102021-06-30T07:29:37.806-07:002021-06-30T07:29:37.806-07:00Dan
Any thoughts on whether UAL Investor Day news ...Dan<br />Any thoughts on whether UAL Investor Day news re smaller planes spells liquidation for HRBR? Seems to be trading that way.DBhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03325949331905053867noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-754894216207950592.post-34189349261775940402021-05-25T09:37:31.755-07:002021-05-25T09:37:31.755-07:00thanksthanksDan Schumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05728696891530868697noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-754894216207950592.post-88099508934106584752021-05-24T21:38:21.051-07:002021-05-24T21:38:21.051-07:00Forgot to add that they took ~20M and invested in ...Forgot to add that they took ~20M and invested in ETFs. If you just take the S&P as a proxy, they would report $1.1M in unrealized gains quarter to date. If they invested in tech/nasdaq, it would be much closer to 200k. While i don't think recording mark to market gains/losses on unrealized gains/losses is a great way to look at things, I tend to think a lot of people just look at the EPS. So it could have an impact on the stock going forward. Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15350288303949096929noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-754894216207950592.post-6420544548500617272021-05-24T21:27:49.136-07:002021-05-24T21:27:49.136-07:00I am struggling a bit to come up with a fair value...I am struggling a bit to come up with a fair value. It is a little more complicated than to say that they would be at a run rate of .06/qtr excluding government assistance, as they continue to have a lower cost structure due to lower demand. From reading their reports, they are likely to get ~$50M more in funding from the government, which certainly counts for something. <br /><br />A couple of things that I like is that they are very likely at 0.20+ per share in normalized earnings. Plus, they will be in a net cash position by the time they collect the remaining government assistance. They have also put in place a share repurchase plan, even if they likely can't use it right now (I believe the government agreements don't allow them to repurchase shares). <br /><br />The concerns are that they rely on UA and past management actions. I would hate to see them try to issue more preferreds, as it was unlikely that it was actually necessary back in January 2020 when they did so. Also, there is the ongoing treasury audit, which could cost them some relatively immaterial amount of the funds already received. More importantly, it could reduce future government funding that they would otherwise be entitled to.<br /><br />Even though it has become a higher percentage of my portfolio than I would typically prefer, I think it is best to still hold at this point. I think the downside is relatively limited based on what we know today. I could see it doubling yet if they use the funds to expand or do a special dividend or share repurchase when allowed to do so. It is probably far more likely that it ends up being worth somewhere in the 2.50-3.00 range than 4+, but I don't think there is a lot of downside from here. Wish I had purchased more sub $0.40.Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15350288303949096929noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-754894216207950592.post-8620377010930491102021-05-24T17:32:43.160-07:002021-05-24T17:32:43.160-07:00Dan, I have looked at this quite a bit recently an...Dan, I have looked at this quite a bit recently and I think it can double again. They have bought almost all of their leased aircraft and that alone will cut cost tremendously. Add in a few other cost cuts and the fact that they are rapidly approaching 2019 capacity again and I can see them doing $20M EBIT soon.<br />Additionally they will expand capacity to some degree, which might require more aircraft but that is up in the air for now.<br /><br />They will also receive $50M in govt support this year so that is cash coming in on top.<br /><br />And finally if you look up the value of their machines in the second hand market it is at 50% of liquidation value. It is not realistic that they would liquidate or achieve those prices in a fire sale but gives some margin of safety.<br /><br />Best<br />FlorianFlorian Buscheknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-754894216207950592.post-68316934024098411672021-05-24T12:25:41.770-07:002021-05-24T12:25:41.770-07:00You have to make that decision on your own. I usu...You have to make that decision on your own. I usually just take the higher of: 10x earnings, 1x book, 1x sales. That would put value at $2-3 which is about where we sit. <br /><br />I don't feel very confident in assigning exactly the right value. I haven't done very deep research on the business or airlines in general. <br /><br />The real question is where will the stock price go. It is of course much less compelling here at $1.90 than it was when I wrote it up at $0.22. When I wrote up the stock you could see the value based on the past. As the stock has risen the value now is coming from the future which is hard to predict. <br /><br />I have sold some recently because it has come up so much and the position got large. I am now watching and waiting. I could see the rise continuing as we move beyond covid lockdowns. but I don't really know what will happenDan Schumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05728696891530868697noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-754894216207950592.post-26640567830999675332021-05-24T10:57:20.807-07:002021-05-24T10:57:20.807-07:00Thx. What do you think is an appropriate value pe...Thx. What do you think is an appropriate value per share for HRBR? Fully diluted book value? Liquidation value (how realistic are book values)? Or some multiple of earnings? <Any sense of normalized earnings power and an appropriate multiple? Annualizing the 6-7c gets you to 0.25c per share, but surely this estimate is low?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-754894216207950592.post-84664274277376805032021-05-19T12:01:27.049-07:002021-05-19T12:01:27.049-07:00yeah. so maybe like 6-7 cents EPS for the Q given...yeah. so maybe like 6-7 cents EPS for the Q given an estimate of taxes. Not bad and great to see it >0. Revenue not bad either, must better than earlier on in the covid madnessDan Schumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05728696891530868697noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-754894216207950592.post-51982412706519979772021-05-18T09:22:16.341-07:002021-05-18T09:22:16.341-07:00Any comment on the Q1 2021 numbers? Ex-govt assis...Any comment on the Q1 2021 numbers? Ex-govt assistance, it looks like $5 mill of pretax income. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-754894216207950592.post-55655264390972969322021-05-11T15:54:33.815-07:002021-05-11T15:54:33.815-07:00Yes the business seems to be very cyclical. Howeve...Yes the business seems to be very cyclical. However, this could also be negative, e.g. sales and earnings could suddenly go down again. I am wondering why this is so cyclical. Michuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03414971091277943787noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-754894216207950592.post-68184084229353096682021-04-01T09:38:29.167-07:002021-04-01T09:38:29.167-07:00Q4 looks really good. Revenue rebounded to $75M a...Q4 looks really good. Revenue rebounded to $75M and they earned about $0.40 per diluted share after taking out CARES act stuff. It's going higher if they can keep that upDan Schumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05728696891530868697noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-754894216207950592.post-59655687921157378052021-04-01T07:31:30.980-07:002021-04-01T07:31:30.980-07:00it looks like they are reporting earnings of $0.71...it looks like they are reporting earnings of $0.71/share... on a $0.75 stock<br /><br />https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/899394/000119312521103375/d159175d10k.htmAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-754894216207950592.post-729405493919355862021-03-05T05:41:51.504-08:002021-03-05T05:41:51.504-08:00see also here: https://seekingalpha.com/article/44...see also here: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4411493-stock-market-party-may-be-over<br />and here:<br />https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VQo8zX7B3pI<br />In my opinion, the U.S. stock market party could indeed be over. Covid inflated the stock market.It will be interesting to see what happens next. Michuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03414971091277943787noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-754894216207950592.post-76994849550608228022021-03-03T00:37:20.202-08:002021-03-03T00:37:20.202-08:00Oi good point! I'll pay more attention to UAL ...Oi good point! I'll pay more attention to UAL going forward. Thanks!Jaapnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-754894216207950592.post-54221454054148268672021-03-02T09:30:27.883-08:002021-03-02T09:30:27.883-08:00United Airlines is Air Wisconsin's sole airlin...United Airlines is Air Wisconsin's sole airline partner. When United made the announcement yesterday that they were buying a bunch of Boeing 737 Max's, I suppose it could have been perceived as being good for United's business, and by extension to HRBR as well. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-754894216207950592.post-57588573300105011842021-03-02T09:05:37.138-08:002021-03-02T09:05:37.138-08:00I suppose so! Oh well, I'm not complaining :)I suppose so! Oh well, I'm not complaining :)Jaapnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-754894216207950592.post-90477751387353673502021-03-02T09:01:51.772-08:002021-03-02T09:01:51.772-08:00I don't see any news. Maybe new group of peop...I don't see any news. Maybe new group of people finding it. Or someone getting excited about dropping covid numbers and rising vaccine distribution? who knowsDan Schumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05728696891530868697noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-754894216207950592.post-63255651027605698422021-03-01T06:45:35.299-08:002021-03-01T06:45:35.299-08:00HRBR stock is exploding today, anyone have any ide...HRBR stock is exploding today, anyone have any idea why?<br /><br />I can't find any news anywhere.Jaapnoreply@blogger.com